The rise of all-electric cities

New York City's recent legislation banning natural gas and other fossil fuels in new construction has sent shockwaves throughout the building industry – and it now begs the question - is this the start of a global trend and if so, how quickly can we expect it to unfold, writes John Ridgeway?

New York is not the first to explore all-electric building codes. In 2020, Berkeley, California, became the first U.S. city to ban natural gas in new low-rise buildings. Since then, other cities like San Francisco and Seattle have followed suit with similar restrictions.

However, New York's legislation is the most comprehensive to date, applying to all new buildings under seven stories by 2026 and all buildings by 2029. This signifies a significant shift in building code standards and has the potential to serve as a blueprint for other municipalities and local authorities.

Challenges and Considerations

While the environmental benefits of all-electric buildings are undeniable, implementing such a large-scale change comes with its own set of challenges. Firstly, there is the impracticality of installing fossil fuel systems with a short lifespan as well as concerns regarding the affordability and feasibility of transitioning existing buildings to electric heating and appliances.

New York's plan acknowledges these challenges and the state is offering financial assistance through programmes funded by the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Homeowners can also benefit from free home energy audits and rebates to implement energy efficiency measures that will ultimately lower electric bills. Additionally, low-income residents can qualify for 100% coverage for electrification and climate efficiency upgrades.

While New York is leading the charge in the US, other countries are also exploring all-electric building regulations. The EU has set ambitious goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector. The revision of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) in 2021 emphasises energy efficiency and the integration of renewable energy sources in buildings.

While not explicitly banning natural gas, the directive paves the way for stricter regulations in member states. Several European countries, like Denmark and the Netherlands, are already looking towards phasing out natural gas in new construction.

China, the world's largest emitter, has also recognised the need to decarbonise its building sector. The country is promoting the use of electric heat pumps and other clean energy technologies in new buildings. Additionally, policies are being implemented to retrofit existing buildings for improved energy efficiency.

The next 10 years

Predicting the exact pace of global adoption of all-electric building codes is difficult. However, based on current trends, we can predict a potential timeline for the next decade. Between now and 2026, more US cities and states are likely to follow New York's lead and implement similar regulations, particularly in regions with strong environmental mandates.

European countries will continue to experiment with stricter energy efficiency standards and may introduce partial bans on natural gas in specific building types. China's focus on clean energy technologies will also likely translate into a significant increase in all-electric buildings.

From 2027-2030, technological advancements will likely play a more crucial role. As battery storage costs decrease and the efficiency of heat pumps improves, the economic feasibility of all-electric buildings will become more attractive. This could lead to a domino effect, with more countries and regions adopting stricter regulations. Additionally, existing building stock will see a gradual shift towards electrification, driven by financial incentives and increasing awareness of environmental benefits.

By 2031-2035, all-electric building codes could become the norm in developed countries with strong environmental commitments. Additionally, developing countries may start implementing less stringent regulations, prioritising energy efficiency improvements as a first step.

Looking beyond 2035

The ultimate goal is a global transition to all-electric buildings. However, achieving this will require significant advancements on multiple fronts. Continued research and development in areas like battery storage, heat pump technology and smart building management systems will be essential to make all-electric buildings a cost-effective and efficient solution.

Power grids will need to be modernised and expanded to accommodate the increased demand for electricity. The construction industry will also require a more skilled workforce capable of designing, installing and maintaining electric building systems. Furthermore, governments will need to continue providing incentives and financial assistance to encourage the transition to all-electric buildings, both for new construction and retrofits.

Going forward, public acceptance and understanding of the benefits of all-electric buildings will be crucial for widespread adoption. Educational campaigns and outreach programmes will almost certainly play a significant role in fostering a positive public perception.

As mentioned earlier, advancements in technology and the decreasing costs of electric heating and appliances will also make all-electric buildings a more attractive option for developers and homeowners alike. Additionally, potential long-term savings on energy bills can further incentivise the transition.

However, the impact of all-electric buildings will extend beyond the construction industry. The increased demand for electricity will necessitate a shift towards renewable energy sources like solar and wind power. This can lead to a cleaner and more sustainable energy grid.

As demand for electric building technologies increases, we can also expect advancements in manufacturing processes and the development of new, sustainable building materials. All-electric buildings will pave the way for smarter and more sustainable cities and urban planning strategies will integrate renewable energy generation and prioritise energy efficiency.

So, the journey towards a global all-electric building future has begun. While New York City has taken the lead, it's important to remember that this is a marathon, not a sprint. Collaboration, innovation, and a commitment to sustainability are the cornerstones of success. By working together, we can ensure that the built environment plays its part in creating a cleaner and healthier planet for all.